The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. You are wasting your time Griff the whole thing is a massive hoax, I have dumped my solar and stocks and investing in thermals and stockpiling vitamin D tablets and looking forward to ice skating across the Thames like my ancestors. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. … Share this. They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. Share on Twitter; Share on Facebook; Share via email; Share on Reddit; Share on Linked In ; Georgina McLean, Senior Digital Journalist. Generally the fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca. Gee mention climate change and Griff appears out of nowhere armed with pretty charts albeit meaningless ones but I appreciate the effort. The Alpine Fault is the biggest but just one of many fault lines affecting New Zealand. When I was woken up by an earthquake in the middle of the night on 4 September 2010 I wondered if it was ‘the big one’ – it was big enough but that was centred close to Christchurch. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand’s most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there’s evidence the country is due for another big one. The special issue was due to coincide with the 300th anniversary, but research into the Kaikoura quake - one of the most complex ever recorded - took priority. It’s the Alpine Fault, which runs for hundreds of km down the length of New Zealand South Island. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. A 2018 study says that a significant rupture in the Alpine Fault could lead to roads (particularly in or to the West Coast) being blocked for months, as with the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, with problems in supplying towns and evacuating tourists. The Alpine Fault is where two great tectonic plates (the Pacific and Australian) plates collide. Future Earthquake Predictions. … Pretty well everywhere in NZ will feel it if there’s a large rupture I’ve read – & you can bet Welly will get whacked hard. Related Articles. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. The Alpine Fault forms part of the on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary. ( Log Out /  27th June 2019 - New Tourism Minister appointed in New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle. In your deluded little world . Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … Climbed Avalanche Peak track above Arthurs Pass a decade or two ago. The last time was in 1717. Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). View large Download slide. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . Dr Caroline Orchiston. Earthquakes dont follow a particular time scale and saying something may happen in the next few hundred years is like saying I dont know what the hell I am talking about, they should join the treasury and just leave us alone. Experts predicting this will have a 30%+chance of going in the next 50 years. ( Log Out /  Nature Geoscience, 2018; 12 (1): 69 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0272-8 Bertrand Rouet-Leduc, Claudia Hulbert, Paul A. Johnson. Movement along this fault has uplifted the Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes. But. "The timing of the disturbance that caused [a] decline [in growth] can be narrowed down to taking place after the 1716 growing season and before the end of the 1717 growing season - ie, the earthquake occurred early in the year 1717 AD.". Journalists get bored with climate alarmism tertorism and asteroid catastrophes. Bugger being a train driver on the Midland line. Tuesday 11 September 2018 3:12pm. The … Plato’s Theory of Forms similar Torres Islanders’ beliefs, A Christian reconsiders the Resurrection of Christ, Science versus ‘populist voice’ on criminal justice, Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll, Claim that Peters was briefed on NZ First Foundation operations, Long campaign but still a fairly predictable outcome, Locked Up in New Zealand - Days of Covid-19 Lockdown — Estralians. Threat of quake in alps wanes. I guess sooner or later they will get something right, I am hoping its the report I saw last week about going into a cooling period because of the rapid decline in sun activity then I can sit in my armchair in 40 years time look back and chuckle. The Alpine fault is under scrutiny at the moment with work underway to predict the next earthquake at the top of the South Island. Free speech for those who don't threaten free speech, Medicinal Cannabis, Links and Information, ‘Governments need more history graduates’. Ten years ago, scientists only had evidence for three separate quakes on the fault - now they have seven recorded at multiple sites along the fault, and 27 in individual stretches. An earthquake felt across the lower South Island over the weekend has reignited calls to prepare for the big Alpine Fault quake. Deluded Dave. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? "The surprises and insights we gained from witnessing a major surface-rupturing earthquake in modern times have made us even more motivated to compile and present current research on the Alpine Fault. Reply. I wish they would shut up with their predictions, they are unsettling given what we lived through but at the end of the day they are nothing more than a mathematical equation. Source: 1 NEWS . It collapsed some of the far stream bank which had been sodden with rain & recently butchered by council workers. 4. Stuff has the latest information on this: Videos show devastating impact across South Island if Alpine Fault ruptures. Would be surprised if it set several faults off here – the Cook & Welly are riddled with them. Same thing happened with the Kaikoura quakes, but I kept refreshing the page every minute – never seen anything like it before. Erosion rates in the hanging wall of the Alpine Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years. I know actually finding out about reality gives you RWNJ’s cognitive dissonance so I did not bother. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? Your comment on climate change goes well with your first comment on this thread. The 300-year anniversary of the last time the Alpine Fault ruptured has been marked with a special issue of the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. At the southern end of the Alpine Fault, Page et al. Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. They were able to narrow down the timing of the last big one to 1717 by looking at tree ring patterns. “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. The spine of the South Island’s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault, runs right through the Wakatipu. May 16,2018; Here is the complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 Project. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. The scientists, emergency planners and numerous agencies involved in preparing for a future Alpine Fault earthquake have modelled the impacts of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault and highlighted the need for emergency agencies to work across boundaries during a future disaster, University of Otago research reveals. Project AF8 or Alpine Fault Magni... From: Christchurch City Libraries. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. Figure 4. Submitted August 15, 2018, SCEC Contribution #8809, 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #038 New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is perhaps the world’s best example of a relatively simple, hypermature, active continental plate boundary transform. From News Extras. When the Eastern face fell away from Mt Cook the underlying rock was described a “weetbix”. (2018) present a dense GPS velocity field along with models of Alpine Fault dip and a possible structure taking up motion east of the Alpine Fault. Geologically, this is a high probability. "Intense shaking caused numerous large landslides, forest damage, and long-term changes to drainage and sedimentation patterns in the Southern Alps, across the coastal plain, and offshore," researchers said on Tuesday. The Alpine Fault is a 800-long plate boundary fault that runs down the western side of the Southern Alps, and presents a significant seismic hazard for New Zealand. That quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger than the Kaikoura quake of 2016. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth- quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. 15 May 2018. Here, it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle. I went straight on to Geonet when we felt the first big rock n roll from the first Sedden event series a couple of years back. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. This image clearly shows the fault running up the West Coast, where the Australian plate dives under and drives up the Southern Alps which line along the rising edge of the Pacific Plate. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. ", Copyright © 2020 MediaWorks TV - All Rights Reserved, By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Access and Privacy Policy. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. Eric Leigh-Pink says: 21 Feb 2018 at 10:31 AM. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. The South Island's Alpine Fault is overdue for a massive earthquake. 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